Guadalajara 5-0 FC Juarez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒02:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
30%
3.72
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.03
Over 2.5
43%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.88
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.17
6+ Goals
9%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 32% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
57%
-8.9pp
30%
Draw
24%
+5.9pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+3.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
45%
+11.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
55%
-11.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.5pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 22%
-8% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -18%
1.50/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.35
-16% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
341 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 77%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
21.4 Crosses 18.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
3W-3D-0L
AWAY FC Juarez
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.55 xG 1.06
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
341 Passes 318
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
11.02.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-1 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
19.08.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
29.01.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-2 HT 0-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
03.07.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
10.02.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-3 HT 1-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
08.08.2021 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-2 HT 1-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
5-0
AWAY FC Juarez
3.26 xG 1.20
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
387 Passes 279
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs FC Juarez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara ran out comfortable winners over FC Juarez 5-0. Half-time: 4-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guadalajara had 57% of the ball to FC Juarez's 43%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 3.26 to 1.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Guadalajara and 1.00 for FC Juarez.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs FC Juarez?

Guadalajara 5-0 FC Juarez in the Mexico - Primera on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs FC Juarez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 48%, draw 30%, FC Juarez 22%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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