Monterrey 1-2 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 1 Sep 2024

Monterrey
1-2 HT 0-1
Toluca
📅01/09/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Monterrey vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.38
2-3 Goals
35%
1.88
4-5 Goals
23%
2.95
6+ Goals
13%
8.79
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.38 — our 29% vs market 17.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-4.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.8pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Monterrey v Toluca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterrey EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.40/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.35
-22% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +3%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
286 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 81%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
20.8 Crosses 15.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2

Monterrey vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterrey
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Toluca
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.70 xG 0.84
45% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
315 Passes 410
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.02.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 0-0 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
31.08.2023 Toluca Toluca 1-0 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
06.02.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 2-1 HT 2-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
18.08.2022 Toluca Toluca 1-1 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
07.04.2022 Toluca Toluca 2-2 HT 1-2 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
23.09.2021 Monterrey Monterrey 2-0 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK

Monterrey 1-2 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterrey
1-2
AWAY Toluca
2.54 xG 0.39
67% Ball Possession 33%
16 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 1
548 Passes 230
88% Pass Accuracy 76%
32 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Monterrey vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca edged past Monterrey 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Monterrey at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Monterrey had 67% of the ball to Toluca's 33%, shots finished 16-3, expected goals 2.54 to 0.39 — the balance of chances actually favoured Monterrey.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Monterrey and 0.83 for Toluca.

What was the final score of Monterrey vs Toluca?

Monterrey 1-2 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterrey vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Monterrey 44%, draw 25%, Toluca 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Monterrey) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monterrey) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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