Sporting Covilha 2-2 CF Os Belenenses — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.56
Over 2.5
49%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.9pp
37%
Away Win
38%
-1.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
60%
-9.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
40%
+9.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.3pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Os Belenenses EU Bookmakers 42%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
1.56/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.40/1.10
+23% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -72% / +12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
237 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Covilha
1W-1D-0L
AWAY CF Os Belenenses
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.11 xG 1.28
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
296 Passes 304
74% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.04.2023 CF Os Belenenses 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR2
13.11.2022 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-1 HT 0-1 CF Os Belenenses POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Covilha
2-2
AWAY CF Os Belenenses
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sporting Covilha vs CF Os Belenenses
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Covilha and CF Os Belenenses couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sporting Covilha had 56% of the ball to CF Os Belenenses's 44%, shots finished 20-6.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sporting Covilha had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sporting Covilha and 0.50 for CF Os Belenenses.

What was the final score of Sporting Covilha vs CF Os Belenenses?

Sporting Covilha 2-2 CF Os Belenenses in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Covilha vs CF Os Belenenses?

Before kick-off our model rated an CF Os Belenenses win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Sporting Covilha 36%, draw 28%, CF Os Belenenses 37%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (CF Os Belenenses), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CF Os Belenenses) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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