Nacional 2-0 Farense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 1 Sep 2024

Nacional
2-0 HT 1-0
Farense
📅01/09/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Nacional vs Farense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
33%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.52
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.4
6+ Goals
13%
12.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 26% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.59
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.45
X/1
10%
4.42
X/2
14%
7.65
X/X
10%
4.89
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
11%
5.6
2/X
5%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-5.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+7.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.2pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nacional v Farense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -8%
2.09/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.27
+8% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
22.0 Crosses 20.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Nacional vs Farense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Farense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.21 xG 1.52
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
281 Passes 282
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
10 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.05.2023 Nacional Nacional 0-1 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR2
07.01.2023 Farense Farense 1-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR2
24.04.2022 Nacional Nacional 3-2 HT 1-1 Farense Farense POR2
12.12.2021 Farense Farense 2-2 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR2
13.02.2021 Nacional Nacional 2-3 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
27.09.2020 Farense Farense 0-1 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR

Nacional 2-0 Farense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional
2-0
AWAY Farense
2.03 xG 0.34
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 4
225 Passes 215
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
21 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nacional vs Farense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional got the better of Farense 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Nacional as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Nacional had 51% of the ball to Farense's 49%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 2.03 to 0.34.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Farense led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Nacional and 1.50 for Farense.

What was the final score of Nacional vs Farense?

Nacional 2-0 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional vs Farense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Nacional 43%, draw 24%, Farense 33%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nacional) ✗ BTTS Yes
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