Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 Famalicao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.92
Draw
35%
3.18
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.54
Over 2.5
44%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.09
No
51%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.35
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
5.15
6+ Goals
9%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.82
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
14.9
X/1
20%
4.12
X/2
11%
7.25
X/X
16%
3.83
2/1
5%
31.0
2/2
9%
6.21
2/X
9%
15.5
Value flag · 1/X at 14.9 — our 10% vs market 3.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
48%
-8.8pp
34%
Draw
28%
+6.5pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
61%
-4.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
39%
+4.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.2pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Famalicao EU Bookmakers 28%
+6% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -9%
1.54/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.34
-3% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +22%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
313 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 75%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
22.6 Crosses 18.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Famalicao
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.26 xG 1.20
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
302 Passes 311
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 3
09.03.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 1-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
08.10.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 1-3 HT 0-2 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
14.04.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 2-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
31.10.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-2 HT 1-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
06.03.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 1-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
01.10.2021 Famalicao Famalicao 1-2 HT 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
2-1
AWAY Famalicao
1.41 xG 0.27
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
294 Passes 301
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 20
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Famalicao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes squeezed past Famalicao 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 34% / 26%) promised a tight game; Vitoria Guimaraes found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 48% of the ball to Famalicao's 52%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 1.41 to 0.27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.17 for Famalicao.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Famalicao?

Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 Famalicao in the Portugal - Premier League on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Famalicao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 39%, draw 34%, Famalicao 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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