Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 Famalicao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.86
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.06
6+ Goals
10%
19.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.8
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.9
X/1
15%
4.35
X/2
9%
7.13
X/X
11%
4.34
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
11%
5.57
2/X
8%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
-0.2pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.7pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.6pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Famalicao EU Bookmakers 30%
+5% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
1.64/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.25
+8% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
310 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 76%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
24.4 Crosses 18.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Famalicao
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.93 xG 1.18
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
318 Passes 312
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
08.10.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 1-3 HT 0-2 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
14.04.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 2-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
31.10.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-2 HT 1-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
06.03.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 1-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
01.10.2021 Famalicao Famalicao 1-2 HT 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
12.05.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-2 HT 1-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
1-0
AWAY Famalicao
2.68 xG 1.22
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 4
302 Passes 323
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Famalicao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes squeezed past Famalicao 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 49% of the ball to Famalicao's 51%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 2.68 to 1.22 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Vitoria Guimaraes's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.50 for Famalicao.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Famalicao?

Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 Famalicao in the Portugal - Premier League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Famalicao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 46%, draw 26%, Famalicao 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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