Vitoria Guimaraes vs Famalicao Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Vitoria Guimaraes v Famalicao — Team-Based Signals
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Famalicao Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-3
HT 0-2
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
2-1
HT 1-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
3-2
HT 1-0
Famalicao
POR
2-1
HT 1-1
Famalicao
POR
1-2
HT 1-1
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
1-2
HT 1-1
Famalicao
POR
Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 Famalicao — Actual Match Statistics
Vitoria Guimaraes squeezed past Famalicao 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 49% of the ball to Famalicao's 51%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 2.68 to 1.22 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Vitoria Guimaraes's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.50 for Famalicao.
What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Famalicao?
Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 Famalicao in the Portugal - Premier League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Famalicao?
Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 46%, draw 26%, Famalicao 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.