Vizela 2-1 Farense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.12
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.78
Over 2.5
50%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.04
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.83
6+ Goals
11%
16.8
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.83 — our 24% vs market 20.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.04
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.05
X/1
13%
4.74
X/2
11%
6.65
X/X
17%
4.33
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
11%
4.9
2/X
6%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
43%
-3.9pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.7pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+1.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.2pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vizela EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +0%
1.76/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.16
+0% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
320 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 78%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
22.0 Crosses 20.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vizela
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Farense
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.24 xG 1.07
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 14
262 Passes 213
76% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Box Touches 22
28 Crosses 33
1 Yellow Cards 1
07.10.2023 Farense Farense 0-0 HT 0-0 Vizela Vizela POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vizela
2-1
AWAY Farense
1.51 xG 0.98
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 3
366 Passes 176
84% Pass Accuracy 64%
23 Box Touches 15
43 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vizela vs Farense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vizela edged past Farense 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 31% / 30% — and on the day Vizela made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Vizela had 62% of the ball to Farense's 38%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.51 to 0.98.

What was the final score of Vizela vs Farense?

Vizela 2-1 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vizela vs Farense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vizela win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Vizela 39%, draw 31%, Farense 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vizela), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vizela) ✓ BTTS Yes
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