Rio Ave 1-0 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 1 Sep 2024

Rio Ave
1-0 HT 1-0
Arouca
📅01/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Rio Ave vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.27
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.85
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.1
6+ Goals
9%
19.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.4
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.1
X/1
14%
5.02
X/2
10%
6.05
X/X
12%
4.12
2/1
9%
29.5
2/2
13%
4.42
2/X
8%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-2.4pp
31%
Draw
29%
+1.9pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+0.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.1pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rio Ave v Arouca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -8%
1.16/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.24
-13% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
317 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 76%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
18.6 Crosses 16.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6

Rio Ave vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rio Ave
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Arouca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.73 xG 0.88
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
262 Passes 418
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.04.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-1 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POR
10.12.2023 Arouca Arouca 2-2 HT 0-2 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
30.07.2023 Arouca Arouca 2-0 HT 1-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave PORLC
28.04.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
12.11.2022 Arouca Arouca 0-1 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
01.08.2021 Arouca Arouca 0-1 HT 0-1 Rio Ave Rio Ave PORLC

Rio Ave 1-0 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rio Ave
1-0
AWAY Arouca
1.68 xG 0.92
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 8
331 Passes 387
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 28
11 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rio Ave vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rio Ave squeezed past Arouca 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 31% / 32%) promised a tight game; Rio Ave found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Rio Ave had 46% of the ball to Arouca's 54%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.68 to 0.92.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rio Ave had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rio Ave and 0.83 for Arouca.

What was the final score of Rio Ave vs Arouca?

Rio Ave 1-0 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rio Ave vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rio Ave win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Rio Ave 38%, draw 31%, Arouca 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rio Ave), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rio Ave) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
1 Sep 2024
17:30 Nacional vs Farense Analysis →
22:30 Vitoria Guimaraes vs Famalicao Analysis →
22:30 Gil Vicente vs Sporting Braga Analysis →