Carlisle United 3-1 Hartlepool United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 1 Oct 2025

Carlisle United
3-1 HT 1-0
Hartlepool United
📅01/10/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✓
England - National League – 2025/2026

Carlisle United vs Hartlepool United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
24%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.5
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.11
6+ Goals
11%
10.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.32
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.9
X/1
14%
4.35
X/2
8%
8.66
X/X
9%
5.3
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
22.1
2/2
11%
6.61
2/X
8%
15.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.1 — our 12% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
53%
-0.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.6pp
24%
Away Win
23%
+0.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.4pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Carlisle United v Hartlepool United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartlepool United EU Bookmakers 26%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
2.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.65
+12% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
325 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 215 · 64%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

Carlisle United vs Hartlepool United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carlisle United
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Hartlepool United
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.37 xG 0.97
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
199 Passes 226
60% Pass Accuracy 61%
19 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
24.01.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 3-1 HT 2-1 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İN2
08.10.2022 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 1-3 HT 1-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
18.01.2022 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-0 HT 0-0 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İN2
31.08.2021 Carlisle United Carlisle United 3-3 HT 1-1 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İNTK
28.08.2021 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 2-1 HT 1-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
14.04.2017 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 1-1 HT 0-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2

Carlisle United 3-1 Hartlepool United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carlisle United
3-1
AWAY Hartlepool United
57% Ball Possession 43%
22 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Carlisle United vs Hartlepool United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carlisle United beat Hartlepool United 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Carlisle United as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Carlisle United had 57% of the ball to Hartlepool United's 43%, shots finished 22-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Carlisle United had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Carlisle United and 1.33 for Hartlepool United.

What was the final score of Carlisle United vs Hartlepool United?

Carlisle United 3-1 Hartlepool United in the England - National League on 01/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carlisle United vs Hartlepool United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carlisle United win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 53%, draw 23%, Hartlepool United 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Carlisle United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Carlisle United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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