Millwall 0-4 Coventry — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 1 Oct 2025

Millwall
0-4 HT 0-1
Coventry
📅01/10/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2025/2026

Millwall vs Coventry Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
48%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.12
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.52
6+ Goals
11%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 30% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.57
1/2
8%
25.0
1/X
5%
13.85
X/1
8%
7.42
X/2 EV+ ✗
23%
4.7
X/X
15%
4.6
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.75
2/X
6%
12.95
Value flag · X/2 at 4.7 — our 23% vs market 16.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 54% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
27%
-0.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
48%
Away Win
46%
+1.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.1pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Millwall v Coventry — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millwall EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Coventry EU Bookmakers 50%
+2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +11%
1.03/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.90/1.25
-23% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +62% / -32%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
255 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 76%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
18.8 Crosses 20.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

Millwall vs Coventry Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millwall
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Coventry
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.82 xG 1.63
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
273 Passes 378
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
26.08.2025 Millwall Millwall 2-1 HT 1-0 Coventry Coventry İNLK
29.12.2024 Coventry Coventry 0-0 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
07.12.2024 Millwall Millwall 0-1 HT 0-0 Coventry Coventry İNCL
11.02.2024 Coventry Coventry 2-1 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
25.11.2023 Millwall Millwall 0-3 HT 0-1 Coventry Coventry İNCL
14.02.2023 Coventry Coventry 1-0 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL

Millwall 0-4 Coventry — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millwall
0-4
AWAY Coventry
1.30 xG 3.60
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
420 Passes 204
81% Pass Accuracy 68%
23 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Millwall vs Coventry
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Coventry swept aside Millwall 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Coventry as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Millwall had 63% of the ball to Coventry's 37%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.30 to 3.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Coventry led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Millwall and 1.33 for Coventry.

What was the final score of Millwall vs Coventry?

Millwall 0-4 Coventry in the England - Championship on 01/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millwall vs Coventry?

Before kick-off our model rated an Coventry win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Millwall 26%, draw 26%, Coventry 48%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Coventry) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Coventry) ✗ Under 2.5
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