Leganes vs Burgos Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Leganes v Burgos — Team-Based Signals
Leganes vs Burgos Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Leganes
İS2
0-3
HT 0-2
Leganes
İS2
0-0
HT 0-0
Burgos
İS2
4-0
HT 3-0
Leganes
İS2
0-0
HT 0-0
Burgos
İS2
Leganes 1-2 Burgos — Actual Match Statistics
Burgos edged past Leganes 2-1 away from home.
Our pre-match lean was Leganes at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Leganes had 62% of the ball to Burgos's 38%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 1.48 to 1.01 — the balance of chances actually favoured Leganes.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Leganes and 0.83 for Burgos.
What was the final score of Leganes vs Burgos?
Leganes 1-2 Burgos in the Spain - 2nd Division on 01/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Leganes vs Burgos?
Before kick-off our model rated a Leganes win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Leganes 43%, draw 29%, Burgos 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.