Parma 3-1 Lazio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 1 Dec 2024

Parma
3-1 HT 1-0
Lazio
📅01/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Parma vs Lazio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.04
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
53%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.03
Over 2.5
56%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.9
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
3.22
6+ Goals
13%
10.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.88
1/2 EV+ ✗
13%
25.5
1/X
5%
16.75
X/1
7%
10.7
X/2
12%
4.63
X/X
11%
5.95
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
28%
2.42
2/X
7%
16.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 13% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
22%
+2.6pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.2pp
53%
Away Win
54%
-1.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
45%
-1.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
55%
+1.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.4pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Parma v Lazio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parma EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Lazio EU Bookmakers 58%
+12% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.43/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/1.06
-2% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +29%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
309 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 453 · 86%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
16.7 Crosses 17.8
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.8

Parma vs Lazio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parma
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Lazio
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.74 xG 1.82
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
370 Passes 455
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
14 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
12.05.2021 Lazio Lazio 1-0 HT 0-0 Parma Parma İTA
21.01.2021 Lazio Lazio 2-1 HT 1-0 Parma Parma İTK
10.01.2021 Parma Parma 0-2 HT 0-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
09.02.2020 Parma Parma 0-1 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
22.09.2019 Lazio Lazio 2-0 HT 1-0 Parma Parma İTA
17.03.2019 Lazio Lazio 4-1 HT 4-0 Parma Parma İTA

Parma 3-1 Lazio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parma
3-1
AWAY Lazio
1.48 xG 2.60
28% Ball Possession 72%
12 Total Shots 23
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 10
157 Passes 489
68% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 39
3 Crosses 44
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Parma vs Lazio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parma beat Lazio 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Lazio at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Parma had 28% of the ball to Lazio's 72%, shots finished 12-23, expected goals 1.48 to 2.60 — the balance of chances actually favoured Lazio.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lazio led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Parma and 2.00 for Lazio.

What was the final score of Parma vs Lazio?

Parma 3-1 Lazio in the Italy - Serie A on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parma vs Lazio?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Parma 24%, draw 23%, Lazio 53%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lazio) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lazio) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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