Heartland 3-2 Nasarawa United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 1 Dec 2024

📅01/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.48
Over 2.5
34%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.67
No
65%
1.41
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
5%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
60%
-8.3pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.5pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+4.8pp
66%
Under 2.5
64%
+1.9pp
34%
Over 2.5
36%
-1.9pp
35%
BTTS Yes
33%
+2.1pp
65%
BTTS No
67%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heartland EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Nasarawa United EU Bookmakers 18%
+1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +7%
1.52/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.20
-7% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +18%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
349 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heartland
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Nasarawa United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
19.12.2021 Heartland Heartland 3-3 HT 1-2 Nasarawa United Nasarawa United NIJ
23.05.2021 Nasarawa United Nasarawa United 3-1 HT 1-0 Heartland Heartland NIJ
03.01.2021 Heartland Heartland 1-2 HT 0-1 Nasarawa United Nasarawa United NIJ
POST-MATCH Heartland vs Nasarawa United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heartland nicked a narrow win over Nasarawa United 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Heartland as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (65%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Nasarawa United led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Heartland and 2.67 for Nasarawa United.

What was the final score of Heartland vs Nasarawa United?

Heartland 3-2 Nasarawa United in the Nigeria NPFL on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heartland vs Nasarawa United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heartland win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Heartland 51%, draw 29%, Nasarawa United 20%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heartland) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Heartland) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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