Avranches 1-4 Dijon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 2 Feb 2024

📅02/02/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.57
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
30%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.15
2-3 Goals
44%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
3.68
6+ Goals
10%
15.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
4.0
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
13.15
X/1
13%
5.73
X/2
8%
5.2
X/X
15%
4.45
2/1
5%
30.5
2/2
16%
3.49
2/X
6%
13.1
Value flag · 1/X at 13.15 — our 10% vs market 4.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
35%
+3.5pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.2pp
30%
Away Win
38%
-7.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.9pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avranches EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Dijon EU Bookmakers 42%
+11% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -42% / -42%
1.29/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.99
+6% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -43%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
265 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avranches
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Dijon
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 5.00
2 Corners 5
25.08.2023 Dijon Dijon 5-2 HT 3-0 Avranches Avranches FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avranches
1-4
AWAY Dijon
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Avranches vs Dijon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dijon swept aside Avranches 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 31% / 30%) promised a tight game; Dijon found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Avranches had 52% of the ball to Dijon's 48%, shots finished 9-12.

What was the final score of Avranches vs Dijon?

Avranches 1-4 Dijon in the France - National League 1 on 02/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avranches vs Dijon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avranches win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Avranches 39%, draw 31%, Dijon 30%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Avranches) ✗ Under 2.5
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