Botafogo 1-3 Flamengo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Super Cup, 2 Feb 2025

Botafogo
1-3 HT 0-2
Flamengo
📅02/02/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Super Cup – 2025

Botafogo vs Flamengo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.32
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
45%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.85
No
59%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.66
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
18%
3.92
6+ Goals
11%
18.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.66 — our 32% vs market 29.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.69
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
10%
7.27
X/2
13%
4.67
X/X
14%
4.17
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.86
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
27%
+1.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.5pp
45%
Away Win
45%
-0.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
50%
-9.2pp
59%
BTTS No
50%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Botafogo v Flamengo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Flamengo EU Bookmakers 49%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -56% / -56%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
294 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 389 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.0
– Crosses 18.0
– Yellow Cards 5.0

Botafogo vs Flamengo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Flamengo
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.29 xG 1.66
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
302 Passes 437
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
25 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.08.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 4-1 HT 1-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
28.04.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 0-2 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
08.02.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 1-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BRC1
03.09.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 1-2 HT 1-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
30.04.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 2-3 HT 0-2 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
26.02.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 0-1 HT 0-1 Flamengo Flamengo BRC1

Botafogo 1-3 Flamengo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
1-3
AWAY Flamengo
0.63 xG 1.69
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 5
283 Passes 311
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 36
12 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Flamengo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo saw off Botafogo 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Botafogo had 48% of the ball to Flamengo's 52%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 0.63 to 1.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Botafogo and 1.17 for Flamengo.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Flamengo?

Botafogo 1-3 Flamengo in the Brazil - Super Cup on 02/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Flamengo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 28%, draw 27%, Flamengo 45%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Flamengo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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