Leones Negros Udeg 5-1 Tlaxcala — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 2 Feb 2025

📅02/02/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.15
Over 2.5
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
6%
2/1
9%
2/2
4%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
66%
-5.1pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.4pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+3.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+2.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-2.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.1pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Tlaxcala EU Bookmakers 17%
+4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +9%
2.35/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.79
+24% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -3%
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
440 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 208 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leones Negros Udeg
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Tlaxcala
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
18.08.2024 Tlaxcala 1-2 HT 0-2 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
24.03.2024 Tlaxcala 0-4 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
30.10.2023 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 2-1 HT 2-1 Tlaxcala MEK2
01.04.2023 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-0 HT 1-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
01.09.2022 Tlaxcala 2-0 HT 1-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
20.03.2022 Tlaxcala 1-2 HT 1-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
POST-MATCH Leones Negros Udeg vs Tlaxcala
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leones Negros Udeg ran out comfortable winners over Tlaxcala 5-1. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Leones Negros Udeg as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leones Negros Udeg had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Leones Negros Udeg and 0.83 for Tlaxcala.

What was the final score of Leones Negros Udeg vs Tlaxcala?

Leones Negros Udeg 5-1 Tlaxcala in the Mexico - Primera A on 02/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leones Negros Udeg vs Tlaxcala?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leones Negros Udeg win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Leones Negros Udeg 61%, draw 21%, Tlaxcala 18%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK2 More Mexico - Primera A
2 Feb 2025
04:00 Mineros de Zacatecas vs Cancun FC Analysis →
06:05 Dorados De Sinaloa vs Celaya Analysis →