Progreso 1-3 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 2 Feb 2025

📅02/02/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
7.18
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
58%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.29
No
58%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
6%
X/2
18%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
35%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
11%
+6.6pp
25%
Draw
19%
+5.7pp
58%
Away Win
70%
-12.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
40%
+2.5pp
58%
BTTS No
60%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 75%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +9%
0.29/2.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/0.76
-64% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +27%
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
252 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 431 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
0W-1D-5L
AWAY CA Penarol
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
27.11.2024 Progreso Progreso 1-5 HT 0-2 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
23.06.2024 Progreso Progreso 0-2 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
24.05.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 3-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
25.11.2021 Progreso Progreso 0-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
15.08.2021 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
25.03.2021 Progreso Progreso 0-2 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
1-3
AWAY CA Penarol
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Progreso vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol got the better of Progreso 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Progreso had 44% of the ball to CA Penarol's 56%, shots finished 11-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Progreso and 2.17 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Progreso vs CA Penarol?

Progreso 1-3 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 02/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Progreso 17%, draw 25%, CA Penarol 58%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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