Progreso 1-5 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 27 Nov 2024

📅27/11/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
7.78
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
57%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.71
Over 2.5
50%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.53
No
54%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
31%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
10%
+7.8pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.9pp
57%
Away Win
68%
-11.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
55%
-5.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
45%
+5.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
36%
+10.9pp
54%
BTTS No
64%
-10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 72%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
0.00/2.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/0.74
-100% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +35%
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
281 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
0W-1D-5L
AWAY CA Penarol
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.06.2024 Progreso Progreso 0-2 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
24.05.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 3-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
25.11.2021 Progreso Progreso 0-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
15.08.2021 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
25.03.2021 Progreso Progreso 0-2 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
07.10.2020 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-1 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
1-5
AWAY CA Penarol
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Progreso vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol cruised past Progreso 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Progreso had 41% of the ball to CA Penarol's 59%, shots finished 12-20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Progreso and 1.67 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Progreso vs CA Penarol?

Progreso 1-5 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 27/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Progreso 18%, draw 25%, CA Penarol 57%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ BTTS No
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