Progreso 0-2 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 23 Jun 2024

📅23/06/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.48
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
50%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
19%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
27%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
19%
+6.6pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.5pp
50%
Away Win
55%
-5.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.5pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 59%
-34% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +8%
0.70/2.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/0.76
-20% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +11%
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
254 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
0W-2D-4L
AWAY CA Penarol
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
24.05.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 3-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
25.11.2021 Progreso Progreso 0-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
15.08.2021 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
25.03.2021 Progreso Progreso 0-2 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
07.10.2020 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-1 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
27.11.2019 Progreso Progreso 0-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
0-2
AWAY CA Penarol
33% Ball Possession 67%
8 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Progreso vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol got the better of Progreso 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Progreso had 33% of the ball to CA Penarol's 67%, shots finished 8-19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Progreso and 1.33 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Progreso vs CA Penarol?

Progreso 0-2 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 23/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Progreso 26%, draw 24%, CA Penarol 50%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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