Mainz 05 1-1 Mönchengladbach — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.28
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.59
6+ Goals
10%
14.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 28% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.55
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
15%
4.24
X/2
5%
7.75
X/X
14%
4.81
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
15%
5.89
2/X
8%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-2.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.3pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.41/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.99
-10% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
327 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 74%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
21.8 Crosses 12.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Mönchengladbach
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.16 xG 1.44
42% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
282 Passes 445
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 2-2 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
24.02.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 4-0 HT 1-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
04.09.2022 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 0-1 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
03.04.2022 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 1-1 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
05.11.2021 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-1 HT 0-1 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
20.02.2021 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 1-2 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
1-1
AWAY Mönchengladbach
0.98 xG 1.02
44% Ball Possession 56%
19 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
12 Corners 6
245 Passes 357
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 19
26 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Mönchengladbach
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 and Mönchengladbach shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Mainz 05 at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 44% of the ball to Mönchengladbach's 56%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 0.98 to 1.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Mainz 05 and 0.83 for Mönchengladbach.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Mönchengladbach?

Mainz 05 1-1 Mönchengladbach in the Germany - Bundesliga on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Mönchengladbach?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 46%, draw 27%, Mönchengladbach 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Mainz 05), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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