Erzgebirge Aue 2-3 Preussen Münster — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
37%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.74
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.25
6+ Goals
13%
11.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.74 — our 27% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.19
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
16%
5.14
X/2
9%
6.23
X/X
13%
4.89
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
22%
4.18
2/X
7%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-5.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
37%
Away Win
32%
+5.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.0pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Preussen Münster EU Bookmakers 36%
-8% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -12%
1.15/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.45
-24% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
286 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
Crosses 21.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Preussen Münster
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
04.10.2023 Preussen Münster Preussen Münster 4-0 HT 2-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
14.05.2016 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 3-0 HT 2-0 Preussen Münster Preussen Münster AL3
05.12.2015 Preussen Münster Preussen Münster 0-1 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2-3
AWAY Preussen Münster
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Preussen Münster
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Preussen Münster squeezed past Erzgebirge Aue 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 37% — and on the day Preussen Münster made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 44% of the ball to Preussen Münster's 56%, shots finished 11-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.33 for Preussen Münster.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Preussen Münster?

Erzgebirge Aue 2-3 Preussen Münster in the Germany - 3rd Division on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Preussen Münster?

Before kick-off our model rated an Preussen Münster win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 36%, draw 26%, Preussen Münster 37%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Preussen Münster), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Preussen Münster) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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