CSKA Moskova 1-1 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 2 Mar 2024

CSKA Moskova
1-1 HT 0-0
FK Orenburg
📅02/03/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2023/2024

CSKA Moskova vs FK Orenburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.37
2-3 Goals
36%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
2.95
6+ Goals
12%
8.79
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.37 — our 27% vs market 18.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.99
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.15
X/1
20%
3.96
X/2
5%
10.7
X/X
12%
5.97
2/1
7%
21.15
2/2
10%
7.82
2/X
7%
15.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
58%
-3.8pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.2pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+2.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.7pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

CSKA Moskova v FK Orenburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CSKA Moskova EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 22%
+1% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.81/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.47
+22% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
355 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
31.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
20.3 Crosses 16.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

CSKA Moskova vs FK Orenburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CSKA Moskova
4W-2D-0L
AWAY FK Orenburg
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.39 xG 0.99
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
316 Passes 358
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.11.2023 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 3-1 HT 2-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUK
25.08.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-1 HT 0-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
26.07.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-6 HT 0-4 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUK
07.05.2023 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 2-1 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
23.10.2022 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-2 HT 1-2 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
08.07.2020 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-4 HT 0-1 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS

CSKA Moskova 1-1 FK Orenburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CSKA Moskova
1-1
AWAY FK Orenburg
0.91 xG 0.45
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 2
413 Passes 376
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
35 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH CSKA Moskova vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CSKA Moskova and FK Orenburg couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was CSKA Moskova at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, CSKA Moskova had 52% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 48%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 0.91 to 0.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CSKA Moskova had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for CSKA Moskova and 0.83 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of CSKA Moskova vs FK Orenburg?

CSKA Moskova 1-1 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Premier League on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CSKA Moskova vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a CSKA Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split CSKA Moskova 54%, draw 24%, FK Orenburg 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (CSKA Moskova), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CSKA Moskova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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