FC Akhmat Grozny 1-0 Ural — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.64
Over 2.5
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.64
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.45
6+ Goals
9%
23.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.64 — our 34% vs market 31.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.18
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
13%
4.64
X/2
10%
6.37
X/X
15%
4.02
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
13%
4.96
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.0pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.8pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.3pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Ural EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -14%
1.27/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.32
-24% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
306 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 75%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
17.9 Crosses 19.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Ural
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.08 xG 1.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
257 Passes 350
70% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.09.2023 Ural Ural 0-1 HT 0-1 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
08.04.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 2-0 HT 1-0 Ural Ural RUS
17.09.2022 Ural Ural 1-2 HT 0-1 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
13.03.2022 Ural Ural 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
24.10.2021 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-0 HT 0-0 Ural Ural RUS
24.04.2021 Ural Ural 1-1 HT 0-1 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
1-0
AWAY Ural
1.08 xG 0.66
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
371 Passes 298
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Akhmat Grozny vs Ural
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Akhmat Grozny nicked a narrow win over Ural 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had FC Akhmat Grozny as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, FC Akhmat Grozny had 54% of the ball to Ural's 46%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.08 to 0.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Akhmat Grozny had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for FC Akhmat Grozny and 0.33 for Ural.

What was the final score of FC Akhmat Grozny vs Ural?

FC Akhmat Grozny 1-0 Ural in the Russia - Premier League on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Akhmat Grozny vs Ural?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Akhmat Grozny win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split FC Akhmat Grozny 42%, draw 30%, Ural 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Akhmat Grozny), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Akhmat Grozny) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
RUS More Russia - Premier League
2 Mar 2024
14:00 CSKA Moskova vs FK Orenburg Analysis →
16:30 Krasnodar vs Rubin Kazan Analysis →
19:30 Zenit St. Petersburg vs Spartak Moskova Analysis →