Etoile Carouge 3-2 Vaduz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 2 Mar 2025

📅02/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
31%
3.45
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.97
Over 2.5
44%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.45
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.13
6+ Goals
8%
10.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 31% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-4.0pp
31%
Draw
26%
+5.7pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
47%
+9.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
53%
-9.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.6pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Etoile Carouge EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Vaduz EU Bookmakers 33%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +14%
1.45/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.08
+13% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +26%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
341 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 77%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
11.5 Crosses 13.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Etoile Carouge
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Vaduz
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.68 xG 0.79
55% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
414 Passes 301
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 16
10 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.12.2024 Vaduz Vaduz 3-2 HT 1-1 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge İSV2
24.09.2024 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge 1-0 HT 1-0 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Etoile Carouge
3-2
AWAY Vaduz
2.46 xG 1.86
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
448 Passes 281
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 32
5 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Etoile Carouge vs Vaduz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Etoile Carouge edged past Vaduz 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Etoile Carouge as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Etoile Carouge had 60% of the ball to Vaduz's 40%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 2.46 to 1.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Etoile Carouge and 1.50 for Vaduz.

What was the final score of Etoile Carouge vs Vaduz?

Etoile Carouge 3-2 Vaduz in the Switzerland Challenge League on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Etoile Carouge vs Vaduz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Etoile Carouge win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Etoile Carouge 41%, draw 31%, Vaduz 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Etoile Carouge) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Etoile Carouge) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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