Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0 Katowice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 2 Mar 2025

Jagiellonia Bialystok
1-0 HT 1-0
Katowice
📅02/03/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Katowice Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.29
Over 2.5
55%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.53
No
42%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.48
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
2.7
6+ Goals
13%
7.24
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.4
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
12.8
X/1
15%
4.75
X/2
10%
8.33
X/X
9%
5.78
2/1
7%
20.55
2/2
11%
5.69
2/X
5%
13.7
Value flag · 1/X at 12.8 — our 12% vs market 5.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-4.6pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.1pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
40%
+5.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
60%
-5.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
61%
-2.8pp
42%
BTTS No
39%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Jagiellonia Bialystok v Katowice — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Katowice EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.97/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.67
+45% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -14%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
347 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 82%
30.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
22.0 Crosses 17.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Katowice Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Katowice
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.53 xG 1.21
68% Ball Possession 32%
19 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
468 Passes 214
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.08.2024 Katowice Katowice 3-1 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
31.10.2018 Katowice Katowice 0-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POLK

Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0 Katowice — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
1-0
AWAY Katowice
1.44 xG 0.66
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 0
398 Passes 318
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
46 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Katowice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok edged past Katowice 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Jagiellonia Bialystok as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 54% of the ball to Katowice's 46%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.44 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Katowice led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 1.50 for Katowice.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Katowice?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0 Katowice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Katowice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 46%, draw 27%, Katowice 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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