Puszcza Niepolomice 0-1 Motor Lublin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 2 Mar 2025

📅02/03/2025 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.86
Over 2.5
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.13
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
3.37
6+ Goals
11%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 27% vs market 25.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.65
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
7%
12.35
X/1
14%
5.67
X/2
14%
5.98
X/X
13%
4.46
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
11%
3.96
2/X
7%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
38%
+3.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.4pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-2.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.0pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 37%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -47% / -47%
1.26/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.62
+16% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +29%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
250 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 78%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
14.0 Crosses 22.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Motor Lublin
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.49 xG 1.07
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
211 Passes 306
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
24.08.2024 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 0-0 HT 0-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
26.09.2023 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 0-1 HT 0-1 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
0-1
AWAY Motor Lublin
0.65 xG 2.38
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
213 Passes 243
70% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 35
29 Crosses 21
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Puszcza Niepolomice vs Motor Lublin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motor Lublin nicked a narrow win over Puszcza Niepolomice 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Puszcza Niepolomice at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Puszcza Niepolomice had 48% of the ball to Motor Lublin's 52%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 0.65 to 2.38 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Motor Lublin's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Puszcza Niepolomice had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Puszcza Niepolomice and 0.00 for Motor Lublin.

What was the final score of Puszcza Niepolomice vs Motor Lublin?

Puszcza Niepolomice 0-1 Motor Lublin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puszcza Niepolomice vs Motor Lublin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Puszcza Niepolomice win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Puszcza Niepolomice 41%, draw 27%, Motor Lublin 32%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Puszcza Niepolomice) ✗ BTTS Yes
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