Sakaryaspor 1-3 Fatih Karagümrük — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 2 Mar 2025

📅02/03/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.91
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
4.09
6+ Goals
8%
19.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.81
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
11%
12.85
X/1
13%
5.59
X/2
13%
5.79
X/X
10%
4.14
2/1
9%
30.5
2/2
14%
4.02
2/X
6%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+3.0pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.4pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-1.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.4pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sakaryaspor EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 38%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +3%
1.19/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.28
+25% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
283 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 76%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
18.9 Crosses 16.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sakaryaspor
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.74 xG 2.16
53% Ball Possession 47%
6 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
374 Passes 332
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
7 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2024 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 4-0 HT 1-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor T1L
24.03.2018 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 HT 1-1 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor S2-B
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sakaryaspor
1-3
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
0.56 xG 1.71
49% Ball Possession 51%
5 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
252 Passes 279
69% Pass Accuracy 74%
11 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sakaryaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük saw off Sakaryaspor 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 33% — and on the day Fatih Karagümrük made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sakaryaspor had 49% of the ball to Fatih Karagümrük's 51%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 0.56 to 1.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sakaryaspor and 2.50 for Fatih Karagümrük.

What was the final score of Sakaryaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Sakaryaspor 1-3 Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkey - 1st Division on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sakaryaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sakaryaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sakaryaspor 40%, draw 27%, Fatih Karagümrük 33%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sakaryaspor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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