Kasımpaşa 3-3 Galatasaray — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 2 Mar 2025

Kasımpaşa
3-3 HT 0-1
Galatasaray
📅02/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Turkey - Super League – 2024/2025

Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.04
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
54%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.51
Over 2.5
60%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.53
No
45%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.31
2-3 Goals
36%
1.99
4-5 Goals
28%
2.58
6+ Goals
14%
6.06
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
7.23
1/2
9%
19.15
1/X
7%
15.0
X/1
7%
10.4
X/2 EV+ ✗
25%
4.49
X/X
7%
6.54
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.0
2/X
8%
13.6
Value flag · X/2 at 4.49 — our 25% vs market 17.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
21%
+1.9pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.7pp
54%
Away Win
57%
-2.6pp
40%
Under 2.5
36%
+3.9pp
60%
Over 2.5
64%
-3.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
61%
-6.6pp
45%
BTTS No
39%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kasımpaşa v Galatasaray — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Galatasaray EU Bookmakers 61%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +24%
1.12/1.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/1.13
+17% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +3%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
259 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 422 · 84%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.1
18.0 Crosses 21.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kasımpaşa
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Galatasaray
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.44 xG 1.81
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
217 Passes 383
69% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.09.2024 Galatasaray Galatasaray 3-3 HT 3-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
17.03.2024 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 3-4 HT 1-1 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
03.11.2023 Galatasaray Galatasaray 2-1 HT 1-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
11.03.2023 Galatasaray Galatasaray 1-0 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
11.09.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-3 HT 1-1 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
20.01.2022 Galatasaray Galatasaray 1-3 HT 1-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL

Kasımpaşa 3-3 Galatasaray — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kasımpaşa
3-3
AWAY Galatasaray
2.38 xG 2.72
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 3
234 Passes 287
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kasımpaşa and Galatasaray shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Galatasaray at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Kasımpaşa had 47% of the ball to Galatasaray's 53%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 2.38 to 2.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Galatasaray led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Kasımpaşa and 2.33 for Galatasaray.

What was the final score of Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray?

Kasımpaşa 3-3 Galatasaray in the Turkey - Super League on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray?

Before kick-off our model rated an Galatasaray win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Kasımpaşa 23%, draw 23%, Galatasaray 54%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Galatasaray) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Galatasaray) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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