Galatasaray 3-3 Kasımpaşa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.34
Draw
20%
4.95
Away
22%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
3.14
Over 2.5
63%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.55
No
44%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
7.99
2-3 Goals
36%
2.31
4-5 Goals
30%
2.39
6+ Goals
15%
4.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.53
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
19.8
X/1
21%
3.84
X/2
9%
17.15
X/X
9%
9.48
2/1
7%
17.9
2/2
8%
10.95
2/X
5%
19.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
70%
-11.8pp
20%
Draw
17%
+3.7pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+8.2pp
37%
Under 2.5
28%
+9.1pp
63%
Over 2.5
72%
-9.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.8pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Galatasaray EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 17%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +22%
2.47/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.80
+14% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / +3%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
437 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 76%
34.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
24.5 Crosses 16.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Galatasaray
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Kasımpaşa
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.03 xG 1.33
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
400 Passes 222
81% Pass Accuracy 69%
30 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
17.03.2024 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 3-4 HT 1-1 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
03.11.2023 Galatasaray Galatasaray 2-1 HT 1-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
11.03.2023 Galatasaray Galatasaray 1-0 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
11.09.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-3 HT 1-1 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
20.01.2022 Galatasaray Galatasaray 1-3 HT 1-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
29.08.2021 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-2 HT 1-2 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Galatasaray
3-3
AWAY Kasımpaşa
0.93 xG 2.24
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
305 Passes 298
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 3-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Galatasaray at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Galatasaray had 50% of the ball to Kasımpaşa's 50%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 0.93 to 2.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Galatasaray had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Galatasaray and 1.83 for Kasımpaşa.

What was the final score of Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa?

Galatasaray 3-3 Kasımpaşa in the Turkey - Super League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Galatasaray win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Galatasaray 58%, draw 20%, Kasımpaşa 22%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Galatasaray) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Galatasaray) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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