Kasımpaşa 3-4 Galatasaray — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.65
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
58%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.69
2-3 Goals
42%
2.03
4-5 Goals
24%
2.62
6+ Goals
11%
6.14
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
8.1
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
19.25
1/X
4%
16.1
X/1
8%
12.1
X/2
19%
4.01
X/X
8%
7.13
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
29%
1.83
2/X
9%
15.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.25 — our 9% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
18%
+2.8pp
21%
Draw
20%
+0.6pp
58%
Away Win
61%
-3.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.5pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Galatasaray EU Bookmakers 66%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +7%
1.12/1.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.07/1.06
+7% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +16%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 448 · 83%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.2
18.0 Crosses 20.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kasımpaşa
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Galatasaray
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.09 xG 1.99
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
225 Passes 382
68% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.11.2023 Galatasaray Galatasaray 2-1 HT 1-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
11.03.2023 Galatasaray Galatasaray 1-0 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
11.09.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-3 HT 1-1 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
20.01.2022 Galatasaray Galatasaray 1-3 HT 1-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
29.08.2021 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-2 HT 1-2 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
14.02.2021 Galatasaray Galatasaray 2-1 HT 1-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kasımpaşa
3-4
AWAY Galatasaray
2.03 xG 2.53
39% Ball Possession 61%
21 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 4
189 Passes 336
65% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 33
15 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Galatasaray nicked a narrow win over Kasımpaşa 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Galatasaray as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Kasımpaşa had 39% of the ball to Galatasaray's 61%, shots finished 21-17, expected goals 2.03 to 2.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Galatasaray led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.83 for Galatasaray.

What was the final score of Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray?

Kasımpaşa 3-4 Galatasaray in the Turkey - Super League on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray?

Before kick-off our model rated an Galatasaray win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Kasımpaşa 21%, draw 21%, Galatasaray 58%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Galatasaray), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Galatasaray) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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