Trabzonspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
45%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.63
No
43%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.78
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.23
6+ Goals
15%
11.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.97
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
23.6
1/X
9%
13.5
X/1
11%
7.11
X/2
18%
4.65
X/X
11%
5.02
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
16%
2.75
2/X
6%
13.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.6 — our 11% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
29%
-0.2pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
45%
Away Win
45%
-0.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
57%
+0.2pp
43%
BTTS No
43%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Trabzonspor EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 49%
+4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +12%
1.21/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/1.12
-8% / +83% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +22%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
357 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 82%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
15.3 Crosses 19.3
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Trabzonspor
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Fenerbahçe
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.45 xG 1.20
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
381 Passes 334
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.11.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-3 HT 0-1 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor TSL
18.05.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 3-1 HT 1-0 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor TSL
24.12.2022 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 2-0 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
06.03.2022 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 1-1 HT 0-1 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor TSL
17.10.2021 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 3-1 HT 1-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
28.02.2021 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 0-1 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Trabzonspor
2-3
AWAY Fenerbahçe
1.17 xG 0.91
58% Ball Possession 42%
7 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 2
377 Passes 257
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 11
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe edged past Trabzonspor 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fenerbahçe as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Trabzonspor had 58% of the ball to Fenerbahçe's 42%, shots finished 7-7, expected goals 1.17 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Trabzonspor had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Trabzonspor and 1.33 for Fenerbahçe.

What was the final score of Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?

Trabzonspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe in the Turkey - Super League on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Trabzonspor 29%, draw 26%, Fenerbahçe 45%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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