Çaykur Rizespor 3-1 Gaziantep FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
33%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.41
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.48
6+ Goals
11%
13.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.53
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
21%
4.37
X/2
10%
8.06
X/X
13%
4.71
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.45
2/2
16%
5.99
2/X
6%
13.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-7.3pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
33%
Away Win
24%
+8.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.3pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Çaykur Rizespor EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Gaziantep FK EU Bookmakers 28%
+6% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -9%
1.62/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.59
+4% / +111% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +2%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
381 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 75%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
22.1 Crosses 16.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Çaykur Rizespor
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Gaziantep FK
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.33 xG 1.98
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
330 Passes 333
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 3
06.11.2023 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 2-0 HT 1-0 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor TSL
20.05.2022 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 2-0 HT 1-0 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor TSL
26.12.2021 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor 0-1 HT 0-1 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
11.05.2021 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 4-5 HT 0-3 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor TSL
20.01.2021 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor 3-0 HT 1-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
17.02.2020 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 2-0 HT 0-0 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Çaykur Rizespor
3-1
AWAY Gaziantep FK
2.21 xG 1.16
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 19
7 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 8
316 Passes 320
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Çaykur Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Çaykur Rizespor beat Gaziantep FK 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Çaykur Rizespor as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Çaykur Rizespor had 50% of the ball to Gaziantep FK's 50%, shots finished 12-19, expected goals 2.21 to 1.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gaziantep FK led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Çaykur Rizespor and 1.83 for Gaziantep FK.

What was the final score of Çaykur Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK?

Çaykur Rizespor 3-1 Gaziantep FK in the Turkey - Super League on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Çaykur Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Çaykur Rizespor win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Çaykur Rizespor 42%, draw 25%, Gaziantep FK 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Çaykur Rizespor), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Çaykur Rizespor) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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