Newcastle United 1-1 Everton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 2 Apr 2024

Newcastle United
1-1 HT 1-0
Everton
📅02/04/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Newcastle United vs Everton Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.12
2-3 Goals
36%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
3.06
6+ Goals
13%
9.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.66
1/2
7%
33.5
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
18%
4.66
X/2
9%
7.37
X/X
11%
5.24
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.7
2/2
11%
5.03
2/X
8%
13.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
47%
+0.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.3pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-0.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.2pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle United v Everton — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Everton EU Bookmakers 31%
+7% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +15%
2.08/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.52
+17% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
382 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 75%
32.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
19.3 Crosses 16.5
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.1

Newcastle United vs Everton Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Everton
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.66 xG 1.09
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
309 Passes 282
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
07.12.2023 Everton Everton 3-0 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
27.04.2023 Everton Everton 1-4 HT 0-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
19.10.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 1-0 Everton Everton İNP
17.03.2022 Everton Everton 1-0 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
08.02.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 3-1 HT 1-1 Everton Everton İNP
30.01.2021 Everton Everton 0-2 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP

Newcastle United 1-1 Everton — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United
1-1
AWAY Everton
2.44 xG 1.44
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
403 Passes 272
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
45 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs Everton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United and Everton shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Newcastle United at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Newcastle United had 58% of the ball to Everton's 42%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 2.44 to 1.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Newcastle United and 1.00 for Everton.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Everton?

Newcastle United 1-1 Everton in the England - Premier League on 02/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Everton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 48%, draw 25%, Everton 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Newcastle United), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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