Alianza Lima 0-1 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 2 Apr 2025

Alianza Lima
0-1 HT 0-0
Libertad
📅02/04/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Copa Libertadores – 2025

Alianza Lima vs Libertad Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.51
Over 2.5
43%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.2
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
5.12
6+ Goals
8%
32.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.27
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
12%
14.1
X/1
13%
4.76
X/2
10%
6.73
X/X
12%
3.67
2/1
6%
33.5
2/2
15%
5.57
2/X
6%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.8pp
31%
Draw
30%
+0.1pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-5.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+5.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.8pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Alianza Lima v Libertad — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 31%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +6%
0.91/0.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.88
-14% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -37%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 74%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
33.0 Crosses 19.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Alianza Lima vs Libertad Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Lima
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Libertad
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
0.76 xG 1.73
46% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
225 Passes 268
70% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
24.05.2023 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-2 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad LKU
21.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 1-2 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima LKU
13.04.2012 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-2 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad LKU
10.02.2012 Libertad Libertad 4-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima LKU

Alianza Lima 0-1 Libertad — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Lima
0-1
AWAY Libertad
0.63 xG 0.87
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
333 Passes 215
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alianza Lima vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad edged past Alianza Lima 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 31% / 30%) promised a tight game; Libertad found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Alianza Lima had 58% of the ball to Libertad's 42%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 0.63 to 0.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Libertad led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Alianza Lima and 2.25 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Alianza Lima vs Libertad?

Alianza Lima 0-1 Libertad in the Copa Libertadores on 02/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Lima vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Alianza Lima 39%, draw 31%, Libertad 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Alianza Lima) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alianza Lima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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