Cerro Porteno 4-2 Bolivar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 2 Apr 2025

📅02/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.05
6+ Goals
10%
9.99
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.72 — our 27% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.11
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.8
X/1
16%
4.24
X/2
7%
10.05
X/X
11%
5.75
2/1
11%
21.75
2/2
13%
7.81
2/X
8%
16.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
57%
-9.6pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.2pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.5pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro Porteno EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Bolivar EU Bookmakers 23%
+16% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
0.95/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/1.35
+26% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +84% / +71%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 74%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
21.6 Crosses 14.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro Porteno
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Bolivar
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.90 xG 1.65
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
378 Passes 224
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 4
07.06.2023 Bolivar Bolivar 2-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno LKU
04.05.2023 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 0-4 HT 0-3 Bolivar Bolivar LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerro Porteno
4-2
AWAY Bolivar
2.26 xG 0.43
33% Ball Possession 67%
19 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
166 Passes 429
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
31 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cerro Porteno vs Bolivar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Porteno got the better of Bolivar 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cerro Porteno as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Cerro Porteno had 33% of the ball to Bolivar's 67%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 2.26 to 0.43.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Bolivar led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Cerro Porteno and 3.00 for Bolivar.

What was the final score of Cerro Porteno vs Bolivar?

Cerro Porteno 4-2 Bolivar in the Copa Libertadores on 02/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro Porteno vs Bolivar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerro Porteno win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Cerro Porteno 47%, draw 26%, Bolivar 26%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerro Porteno), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cerro Porteno) ✓ BTTS Yes
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