Fenerbahçe 1-2 Galatasaray — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Cup, 2 Apr 2025

Fenerbahçe
1-2 HT 1-2
Galatasaray
📅02/04/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Turkey - Cup – 2024/2025

Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
25%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.21
Over 2.5
56%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.53
No
43%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.43
2-3 Goals
36%
1.9
4-5 Goals
29%
2.85
6+ Goals
13%
8.08
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.68
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
12.3
X/1
17%
5.1
X/2
10%
7.82
X/X
12%
5.46
2/1
6%
22.0
2/2
9%
5.22
2/X
7%
13.05
Value flag · 1/X at 12.3 — our 10% vs market 5.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-0.9pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.0pp
25%
Away Win
27%
-2.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.0pp
43%
BTTS No
39%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fenerbahçe v Galatasaray — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Galatasaray EU Bookmakers 31%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -44% / -44%
1.25/2.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.36/2.00
-28% / -55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -71% / -16%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
351 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Galatasaray
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.18 xG 0.87
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
253 Passes 289
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
24.02.2025 Galatasaray Galatasaray 0-0 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
21.09.2024 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 1-3 HT 0-2 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
19.05.2024 Galatasaray Galatasaray 0-1 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
24.12.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 0-0 HT 0-0 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
04.06.2023 Galatasaray Galatasaray 3-0 HT 1-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
08.01.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 0-3 HT 0-1 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL

Fenerbahçe 1-2 Galatasaray — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fenerbahçe
1-2
AWAY Galatasaray
2.46 xG 3.17
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 23
5 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 11
256 Passes 248
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 37
18 Crosses 27
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Galatasaray edged past Fenerbahçe 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Fenerbahçe at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Fenerbahçe had 51% of the ball to Galatasaray's 49%, shots finished 16-23, expected goals 2.46 to 3.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Galatasaray led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.50 for Galatasaray.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray?

Fenerbahçe 1-2 Galatasaray in the Turkey - Cup on 02/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 46%, draw 29%, Galatasaray 25%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fenerbahçe) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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