Oleksandria 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ukraine - Cup, 2 Apr 2025

📅02/04/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.04
Draw
21%
3.35
Away
50%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.56
Over 2.5
47%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.16
No
59%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
23%
X/X
14%
2/1
3%
2/2
23%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
21%
+7.4pp
21%
Draw
26%
-5.2pp
50%
Away Win
52%
-2.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
60%
-7.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
40%
+7.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.8pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oleksandria EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Shakhtar Donetsk EU Bookmakers 56%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.21
-3% / +78% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -19%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
277 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oleksandria
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Shakhtar Donetsk
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
5 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.03.2025 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 HT 0-0 Oleksandria Oleksandria UKR
24.08.2024 Oleksandria Oleksandria 4-3 HT 2-2 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
26.02.2024 Oleksandria Oleksandria 0-3 HT 0-0 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
14.08.2023 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 HT 2-0 Oleksandria Oleksandria UKR
07.05.2023 Oleksandria Oleksandria 1-1 HT 1-0 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
29.10.2022 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 2-2 HT 1-1 Oleksandria Oleksandria UKR
POST-MATCH Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shakhtar Donetsk nicked a narrow win over Oleksandria 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Shakhtar Donetsk as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (59%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shakhtar Donetsk led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Oleksandria and 2.33 for Shakhtar Donetsk.

What was the final score of Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

Oleksandria 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk in the Ukraine - Cup on 02/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Shakhtar Donetsk win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Oleksandria 29%, draw 21%, Shakhtar Donetsk 50%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shakhtar Donetsk), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Shakhtar Donetsk) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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