Cruzeiro 2-0 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 2 May 2025

📅02/05/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.57
Draw
32%
3.54
Away
25%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.52
Over 2.5
33%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.51
No
63%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.19
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
15%
5.17
6+ Goals
7%
33.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
60%
-17.0pp
32%
Draw
25%
+6.6pp
25%
Away Win
15%
+10.5pp
67%
Under 2.5
62%
+4.8pp
33%
Over 2.5
38%
-4.8pp
37%
BTTS Yes
36%
+1.1pp
63%
BTTS No
64%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 18%
-14% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.14/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.22
-41% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +21%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
375 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 76%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.1 Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Vila Nova
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.91 xG 1.33
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
362 Passes 220
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
15 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.10.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
02.07.2022 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
02.11.2021 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 1-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
24.07.2021 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
2-0
AWAY Vila Nova
2.22 xG 0.28
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 6
431 Passes 263
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 10
30 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro got the better of Vila Nova 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cruzeiro as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 60% of the ball to Vila Nova's 40%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.22 to 0.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Cruzeiro and 0.50 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Vila Nova?

Cruzeiro 2-0 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Cup on 02/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 43%, draw 32%, Vila Nova 25%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruzeiro), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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