KTP Kotka 1-3 Oulu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 2 May 2025

📅02/05/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.36
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.68
6+ Goals
11%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 26% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.37
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
18%
5.25
X/2
11%
6.18
X/X
13%
4.78
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
18%
4.32
2/X
8%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
41%
-3.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+2.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+6.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-6.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.4pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Oulu EU Bookmakers 37%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.64/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/2.06
-19% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
19.0 Crosses 17.1
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KTP Kotka
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Oulu
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.10 xG 1.49
44% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
341 Passes 348
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2023 Oulu Oulu 2-0 HT 2-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
22.07.2023 Oulu Oulu 3-1 HT 1-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
05.07.2023 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 1-2 HT 1-0 Oulu Oulu FİK
05.04.2023 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 0-2 HT 0-1 Oulu Oulu FİN
31.10.2021 Oulu Oulu 2-1 HT 1-1 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
05.07.2021 Oulu Oulu 1-1 HT 0-1 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KTP Kotka
1-3
AWAY Oulu
0.80 xG 1.71
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
273 Passes 357
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH KTP Kotka vs Oulu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Oulu beat KTP Kotka 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Oulu made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, KTP Kotka had 46% of the ball to Oulu's 54%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.80 to 1.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Oulu led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for KTP Kotka and 2.00 for Oulu.

What was the final score of KTP Kotka vs Oulu?

KTP Kotka 1-3 Oulu in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 02/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KTP Kotka vs Oulu?

Before kick-off our model rated a KTP Kotka win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split KTP Kotka 37%, draw 27%, Oulu 36%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (KTP Kotka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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