NK Varazdin 1-1 Sibenik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 2 May 2025

📅02/05/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.82
Draw
33%
3.18
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.56
Over 2.5
39%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.31
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
4.8
6+ Goals
7%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
20%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
51%
-8.9pp
33%
Draw
28%
+4.7pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
60%
+0.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
40%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.1pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Sibenik EU Bookmakers 24%
+13% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +13%
1.34/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.21
-14% / +76% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +52%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 76%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
20.2 Crosses 17.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Sibenik
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.30 xG 1.16
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
303 Passes 269
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
15 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.03.2025 Sibenik Sibenik 0-2 HT 0-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
29.11.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-1 HT 1-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
15.09.2024 Sibenik Sibenik 0-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
05.05.2023 Sibenik Sibenik 0-2 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
04.03.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-0 HT 1-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
28.10.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 1-2 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
1-1
AWAY Sibenik
1.03 xG 0.93
67% Ball Possession 33%
14 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
524 Passes 210
85% Pass Accuracy 69%
20 Box Touches 17
29 Crosses 5
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Sibenik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin and Sibenik couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was NK Varazdin at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 67% of the ball to Sibenik's 33%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.03 to 0.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NK Varazdin had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for NK Varazdin and 0.33 for Sibenik.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Sibenik?

NK Varazdin 1-1 Sibenik in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 02/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Sibenik?

Before kick-off our model rated a NK Varazdin win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 42%, draw 33%, Sibenik 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (NK Varazdin), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NK Varazdin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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