Pogon Szczecin 3-4 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Cup, 2 May 2025

📅02/05/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.8
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
38%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.91
Over 2.5
56%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.68
No
45%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.34
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.29
6+ Goals
13%
12.15
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.29 — our 27% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
4.5
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
25.5
1/X
7%
13.55
X/1
13%
6.48
X/2
11%
5.2
X/X
8%
4.9
2/1
5%
31.0
2/2
16%
3.2
2/X
9%
13.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 11% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
32%
+6.3pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.9pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-3.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
48%
-4.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
52%
+4.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.6pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 45%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.82/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.04/1.37
+29% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
304 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Legia Varşova
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.95 xG 1.53
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
288 Passes 359
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.03.2025 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 0-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
20.09.2024 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-0 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
02.03.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
27.09.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-4 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
07.05.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-1 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
22.10.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-1 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
3-4
AWAY Legia Varşova
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 8
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova nicked a narrow win over Pogon Szczecin 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 24% / 38% — and on the day Legia Varşova made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 52% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 48%, shots finished 17-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.17 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Varşova?

Pogon Szczecin 3-4 Legia Varşova in the Poland - Cup on 02/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 39%, draw 24%, Legia Varşova 38%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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