Eibar 4-3 Real Oviedo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 2 Jun 2024

Eibar
4-3 HT 2-1
Real Oviedo
📅02/06/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Eibar vs Real Oviedo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.66
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.3
6+ Goals
9%
11.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.66 — our 30% vs market 22.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.81
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
12.1
X/1 EV+ ✗
22%
4.86
X/2
11%
7.38
X/X
12%
4.6
2/1
6%
24.85
2/2
12%
5.12
2/X
6%
12.5
Value flag · X/1 at 4.86 — our 22% vs market 15.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
-0.2pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.5pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.0pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Eibar v Real Oviedo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eibar EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Oviedo EU Bookmakers 31%
+6% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +11%
1.34/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.17
+22% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
323 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 74%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
23.1 Crosses 18.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4

Eibar vs Real Oviedo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Eibar
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Real Oviedo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.94 xG 0.86
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
393 Passes 296
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.11.2023 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo 2-1 HT 0-1 Eibar Eibar İS2
01.04.2023 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo 1-1 HT 0-0 Eibar Eibar İS2
11.12.2022 Eibar Eibar 1-0 HT 0-0 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo İS2
23.07.2022 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo 0-0 HT 0-0 Eibar Eibar HAZ
10.01.2022 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo 1-1 HT 1-0 Eibar Eibar İS2
03.11.2021 Eibar Eibar 1-0 HT 0-0 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo İS2

Eibar 4-3 Real Oviedo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eibar
4-3
AWAY Real Oviedo
2.41 xG 3.39
49% Ball Possession 51%
20 Total Shots 22
11 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
378 Passes 400
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 44
16 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Eibar vs Real Oviedo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Eibar squeezed past Real Oviedo 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Eibar as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Eibar had 49% of the ball to Real Oviedo's 51%, shots finished 20-22, expected goals 2.41 to 3.39 — on chances, Real Oviedo could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Eibar had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Eibar and 0.67 for Real Oviedo.

What was the final score of Eibar vs Real Oviedo?

Eibar 4-3 Real Oviedo in the Spain - 2nd Division on 02/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eibar vs Real Oviedo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Eibar win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Eibar 45%, draw 26%, Real Oviedo 29%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Eibar) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Eibar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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