Tromsö 1-2 Lilleström — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 2 Jun 2024

📅02/06/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.0
Over 2.5
56%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.63
No
43%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.74
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.25
6+ Goals
12%
11.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.82
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
33.0
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
13%
4.72
X/2
14%
6.91
X/X
10%
4.99
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
9%
4.82
2/X
9%
13.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 33.0 — our 8% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+1.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
46%
-2.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
54%
+2.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
57%
-0.2pp
43%
BTTS No
43%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tromsö EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lilleström EU Bookmakers 32%
-6% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
1.50/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.26
-8% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
374 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.7
17.1 Crosses 21.9
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tromsö
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Lilleström
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.12 xG 1.06
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
365 Passes 439
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
06.08.2023 Tromsö Tromsö 3-1 HT 0-1 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
02.07.2023 Lilleström Lilleström 0-1 HT 0-0 Tromsö Tromsö NOR
19.03.2023 Tromsö Tromsö 2-3 HT 1-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOK
07.08.2022 Lilleström Lilleström 1-1 HT 0-1 Tromsö Tromsö NOR
29.05.2022 Tromsö Tromsö 2-2 HT 1-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
25.09.2021 Lilleström Lilleström 1-2 HT 0-1 Tromsö Tromsö NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tromsö
1-2
AWAY Lilleström
0.65 xG 0.26
57% Ball Possession 43%
7 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 7
453 Passes 320
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 10
15 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tromsö vs Lilleström
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lilleström squeezed past Tromsö 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Tromsö at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Tromsö had 57% of the ball to Lilleström's 43%, shots finished 7-6, expected goals 0.65 to 0.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tromsö had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Tromsö and 1.33 for Lilleström.

What was the final score of Tromsö vs Lilleström?

Tromsö 1-2 Lilleström in the Norway - Eliteserien on 02/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tromsö vs Lilleström?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tromsö win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Tromsö 43%, draw 26%, Lilleström 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tromsö) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tromsö) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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