Real Salt Lake 2-1 Atlas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Concacaf League Cup, 2 Aug 2024

📅02/08/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.8
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.1
2-3 Goals
36%
1.85
4-5 Goals
27%
3.06
6+ Goals
10%
9.73
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.1 — our 27% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
52%
-7.8pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.7pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.2pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Salt Lake EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlas EU Bookmakers 27%
+34% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +62% / +62%
1.67/0.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.45/1.53
+95% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% /
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
359 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 77%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
15.0 Crosses 9.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Salt Lake
2-1
AWAY Atlas
0.84 xG 0.83
65% Ball Possession 35%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
483 Passes 220
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Real Salt Lake vs Atlas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Salt Lake squeezed past Atlas 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Real Salt Lake as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Real Salt Lake had 65% of the ball to Atlas's 35%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 0.84 to 0.83.

What was the final score of Real Salt Lake vs Atlas?

Real Salt Lake 2-1 Atlas in the Concacaf League Cup on 02/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Salt Lake vs Atlas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Salt Lake win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Real Salt Lake 44%, draw 29%, Atlas 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Salt Lake), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Salt Lake) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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