Toluca vs Chicago Fire Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Chicago Fire — Team-Based Signals
Toluca 3-1 Chicago Fire — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca beat Chicago Fire 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.
As we said in the preview, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Toluca had 54% of the ball to Chicago Fire's 46%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 2.17 to 1.15.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Chicago Fire?
Toluca 3-1 Chicago Fire in the Concacaf League Cup on 02/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Chicago Fire?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Toluca 47%, draw 23%, Chicago Fire 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.