Fransa U23 1-0 Arjantin U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Olympics, 2 Aug 2024

📅02/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.8
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
33%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.28
2-3 Goals
45%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
3.59
6+ Goals
8%
14.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 31% vs market 24.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.37
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
14.25
X/1
15%
4.1
X/2 EV+ ✗
22%
8.58
X/X
9%
4.83
2/1
3%
24.0
2/2
7%
6.65
2/X
9%
14.9
Value flag · X/2 at 8.58 — our 22% vs market 8.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
52%
-6.4pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.4pp
33%
Away Win
23%
+9.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.7pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fransa U23 EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Arjantin U23 EU Bookmakers 26%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
363 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fransa U23
1-0
AWAY Arjantin U23
0.99 xG 0.93
31% Ball Possession 69%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
206 Passes 546
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
25 Box Touches 34
16 Crosses 14
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fransa U23 vs Arjantin U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fransa U23 squeezed past Arjantin U23 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fransa U23 as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Fransa U23 had 31% of the ball to Arjantin U23's 69%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 0.99 to 0.93.

What was the final score of Fransa U23 vs Arjantin U23?

Fransa U23 1-0 Arjantin U23 in the Olympics on 02/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fransa U23 vs Arjantin U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fransa U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Fransa U23 45%, draw 22%, Arjantin U23 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fransa U23), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fransa U23) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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