Paderborn 2-1 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 2 Aug 2025

📅02/08/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.03
Over 2.5
61%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.6
No
39%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
16%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.5pp
21%
Draw
26%
-4.8pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+3.3pp
39%
Under 2.5
45%
-6.5pp
61%
Over 2.5
55%
+6.5pp
61%
BTTS Yes
58%
+3.0pp
39%
BTTS No
42%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 36%
-7% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +42%
1.88/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.42
-1% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +34%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
310 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
22.0 Crosses 18.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.90 xG 1.95
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
321 Passes 364
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.02.2024 Paderborn Paderborn 0-4 HT 0-2 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
02.09.2023 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 2-1 HT 1-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
25.02.2023 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 1-1 HT 0-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
20.08.2022 Paderborn Paderborn 7-2 HT 5-2 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
04.03.2022 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 3-4 HT 1-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
25.09.2021 Paderborn Paderborn 1-2 HT 1-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
2-1
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.22 xG 0.42
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 0
313 Passes 384
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paderborn edged past Holstein Kiel 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Paderborn as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Paderborn had 47% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 53%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 1.22 to 0.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Holstein Kiel led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Paderborn and 2.33 for Holstein Kiel.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Holstein Kiel?

Paderborn 2-1 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 02/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 43%, draw 21%, Holstein Kiel 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paderborn), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Paderborn) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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