Paderborn 0-4 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 17 Feb 2024

Paderborn
0-4 HT 0-2
Holstein Kiel
📅17/02/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Paderborn vs Holstein Kiel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.33
Over 2.5
57%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.49
No
40%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.86
2-3 Goals
38%
1.92
4-5 Goals
28%
2.75
6+ Goals
12%
7.33
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.11
1/2
6%
26.0
1/X
9%
12.35
X/1
16%
5.41
X/2
12%
6.22
X/X
8%
5.5
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
23.3
2/2
17%
3.77
2/X
9%
12.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.3 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-2.6pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+1.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
39%
+4.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
61%
-4.1pp
60%
BTTS Yes
63%
-3.1pp
40%
BTTS No
37%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paderborn v Holstein Kiel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +24%
1.77/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.46
+19% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
310 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 78%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
18.4 Crosses 19.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

Paderborn vs Holstein Kiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.95 xG 1.91
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
313 Passes 377
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.09.2023 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 2-1 HT 1-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
25.02.2023 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 1-1 HT 0-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
20.08.2022 Paderborn Paderborn 7-2 HT 5-2 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
04.03.2022 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 3-4 HT 1-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
25.09.2021 Paderborn Paderborn 1-2 HT 1-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
27.01.2021 Paderborn Paderborn 1-1 HT 1-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2

Paderborn 0-4 Holstein Kiel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
0-4
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.23 xG 1.59
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
381 Passes 294
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Holstein Kiel swept aside Paderborn 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Holstein Kiel made the difference. On goals, over 2.5 goals (57%) landed while both teams to score (60%) missed.

On the day, Paderborn had 55% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 45%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.23 to 1.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Paderborn and 1.83 for Holstein Kiel.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Holstein Kiel?

Paderborn 0-4 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 38%, draw 27%, Holstein Kiel 35%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Paderborn), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paderborn) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL2 More Germany - 2. Bundesliga
17 Feb 2024
15:00 Schalke 04 vs Wehen Wiesbaden Analysis →
15:00 Hansa Rostock vs Hamburg Analysis →
22:30 Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Analysis →