Leganes 3-1 Alcorcon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 2 Aug 2025

📅02/08/2025 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.49
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.15
Over 2.5
46%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.95
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
2.89
6+ Goals
9%
8.83
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.95 — our 32% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
12%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
62%
-10.4pp
25%
Draw
20%
+4.9pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+5.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
43%
+11.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
57%
-11.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.0pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leganes EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Alcorcon EU Bookmakers 21%
-30% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +48% / +48%
1.33/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/1.12
-34% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +74% / +70%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
369 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leganes
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Alcorcon
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.24 xG 0.99
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
326 Passes 227
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
24.07.2024 Leganes Leganes 1-2 HT 0-0 Alcorcon Alcorcon HAZ
18.02.2024 Leganes Leganes 3-0 HT 1-0 Alcorcon Alcorcon İS2
05.01.2024 Alcorcon Alcorcon 0-0 Leganes Leganes HAZ
19.08.2023 Alcorcon Alcorcon 0-2 HT 0-0 Leganes Leganes İS2
03.08.2022 Alcorcon Alcorcon 1-2 HT 0-2 Leganes Leganes HAZ
30.01.2022 Leganes Leganes 1-0 HT 0-0 Alcorcon Alcorcon İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leganes
3-1
AWAY Alcorcon
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
POST-MATCH Leganes vs Alcorcon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leganes got the better of Alcorcon 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Leganes as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Leganes had 57% of the ball to Alcorcon's 43%, shots finished 14-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leganes had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Leganes and 0.50 for Alcorcon.

What was the final score of Leganes vs Alcorcon?

Leganes 3-1 Alcorcon in the Friendlies on 02/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leganes vs Alcorcon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leganes win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Leganes 52%, draw 25%, Alcorcon 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leganes) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leganes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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