Liverpool 2-4 Leeds United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 2 Aug 2026

Liverpool
2-4 HT 2-0
Leeds United
📅02/08/2026 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Friendlies – 2026/2027

Liverpool vs Leeds United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.89
Over 2.5
53%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.35
No
48%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
6.47
2-3 Goals
43%
2.12
4-5 Goals
21%
2.41
6+ Goals
10%
4.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.79
1/2
5%
24.35
1/X
7%
12.0
X/1
18%
5.58
X/2
16%
7.16
X/X
9%
6.42
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
19.8
2/2
15%
4.09
2/X
8%
12.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.8 — our 8% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-4.4pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.0pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+3.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
31%
+15.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
69%
-15.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
70%
-18.1pp
48%
BTTS No
30%
+18.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Liverpool v Leeds United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Leeds United EU Bookmakers 36%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -43% / -43%
1.27/2.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/4.00
-21% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / -63%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
375 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 79%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
26.0 Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards –

Liverpool vs Leeds United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Leeds United
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
3.15 xG 1.15
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
555 Passes 253
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
37 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.01.2026 Liverpool Liverpool 0-0 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNP
06.12.2025 Leeds United Leeds United 3-3 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
17.04.2023 Leeds United Leeds United 1-6 HT 0-2 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
29.10.2022 Liverpool Liverpool 1-2 HT 1-1 Leeds United Leeds United İNP
23.02.2022 Liverpool Liverpool 6-0 HT 3-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNP
12.09.2021 Leeds United Leeds United 0-3 HT 0-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP

Liverpool 2-4 Leeds United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool
2-4
AWAY Leeds United
1.14 xG 2.22
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
441 Passes 301
23 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Liverpool vs Leeds United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leeds United saw off Liverpool 4-2 away from home. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 24% / 35%) promised a tight game; Leeds United found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 1.14 to 2.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Liverpool and 1.00 for Leeds United.

What was the final score of Liverpool vs Leeds United?

Liverpool 2-4 Leeds United in the Friendlies on 02/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool vs Leeds United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Liverpool 40%, draw 24%, Leeds United 35%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Liverpool) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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